Topic: Russia strengthening...
soxfan94's photo
Wed 01/23/08 10:57 AM
Edited by soxfan94 on Wed 01/23/08 10:58 AM
So Russia has struck a deal with Serbia to control their pipeline and tighten Russia's grasp on the flow of gas and oil to Europe. [Technically it's gas company Gazprom...but don't be fooled, they're state run].

Anyone else becoming increasingly worried about Russia's increasing distance from the burgeoning democracy of the 1990's, lack of cooperation with world leaders, stifling of elections, corruption of officials, murders of dissidents, and a booming economy which has quickly granted them an awful lot of leverage?

Just wondering.

Edit: Link to the story - http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7202496.stm

Runpenzo's photo
Wed 01/23/08 11:00 AM
I'm more worried about the Arabian Sheiks who want to buy Citibank, and the stranglehold China and Japan have on the american economy because we owe them so much money, Russia will probably become a military super power again in the near future but they wont own our asses...

soxfan94's photo
Wed 01/23/08 11:04 AM
Well the one positive thing is that at least those three (China, Russia, Japan) hate each other pretty well...non-economically anyway. Presumably if any of them will make a move they'll first do so regionally and hopefully they'll manage to counteract each other enough to stem the tide from the start.

Runpenzo's photo
Wed 01/23/08 11:13 AM
Yeah, thank goodness for deep seeded hatred! But China wont make any kind of move without the Middle East's support, if they were going to try anything they'd have to secure oil and money, and the middle easy is one of their closest allies. Russia on the other hand is in a bad way with pertty much all of the middle east, so they'd have an embargo on non-local oil, and if they did that their economy would spiral into another post communisim depression, I dont think they'd chance another depression just to protect american intrests.
And Japans economy is thriving because of military and technology contracts with China, if they tried anything the Chineese govt could cut economic ties with Japan and they'd have to rely on American investors to support their economy, and if that happened they'd become an american protectorate like they were after WWII, I doubt they'd chance that for american intrests either...
So China could bankrupt america, subjugate japan, and cripple Russia all in one fowl swoop, but only if they gain the support of the Middle east, and that might now be far off...

soxfan94's photo
Wed 01/23/08 11:24 AM
China and the Middle East are close allies? I had no idea. That's no good. Any countries in the middle east particularly?

Also, are you implying that Russia wouldn't survive on their own national oil sources alone? If that's what you were trying to say, I would disagree...their entire economic resurgence has been based on their booming oil industry.

Lastly, both China and Japan rely largely on exports to the United States and lately China in particular has felt the pain which occurs when Americans stop buying their goods. (Note to self: don't put any more lead in toys, it's bad for sales). Another deterrent for them is that any aggressive action towards the United States would most likely result in nationwide boycotts of their goods, effectively retarding their growing economies.

Runpenzo's photo
Wed 01/23/08 11:36 AM
China is buying oil like crazy, and without bickering and pleading and threatening like America, they've been allies with the Afghans since the Russian invasion of Afghanistan, Chinese weapon traders working for Chinese Govt supplied the Afghans with weapons and money to keep Russia out, since then they've opened free trade agreements with almost every Middle East country with a centralized government. I'd call that an ally... I'm not saying Russia can't support themselves with oil, but if thats their only burgeoning market and the middle east uses politics to drive up the cost of Middle east oil, then uses the dividents to buy out the Russian oil fields and freezes Citibank (if they buy it) the they could freeze russian assets across the world, bringing their economy to a stand still and forcing them to borrow money...
China is growing at 11% on a quarterly basis, their economy can live without american buyers, their growth would slow but they could survive... And japan is importing chinese goods at record rates, after using the intrest of the money the US has to pay them, so even if the american people do boycott chinese products they could still send goods to Japan, and Japan could buy it with american money...

soxfan94's photo
Wed 01/23/08 11:43 AM
Yeah I'm not saying that it would be a complete bar to China or Japan, just a factor which they would have to consider prior to any aggressive action. And once military action commences (if it does), I don't see economic ties being strong enough to bind Japan and China together in light of their hatred for one another. If push came to shove, I think whichever country started the military aggression would be immediately isolated from all the others and a counter-coalition would form (the enemy of my enemy is my friend).
That being said, from what you say it sounds like the China-Middle East connection is a serious threat without too many hurdles in the way of a multi-continental alliance which could threaten to dominate the globe before long. Ugh.

As for Russia, oil is the reason their economy got its feet back under it (and then some), but as a result foreign investors have been flocking and the modernization of the country has led to strong technology and military sectors as well.

Runpenzo's photo
Wed 01/23/08 12:04 PM
Japan has always had a deep hatred for America, We ruined their entire culture after WWII, we didn't just beat them, we made them denounce their ancestors, they blame America for every person that contracts leukemia in Hiroshima and Nagasaki, I think if it were to come to military action Japan would readily side with China over America.
Well the middle east has been making these connections for years, they've been waiting for the right moment to secure international power, and with an ally as strong as China they just might have the ability to do it, they're looking at the big picture, while America is looking to become another imperialistic colonizing nation, and we know what happened to all of the other imperialist nations, they spread their power too wide and when a centralized power struck at them they couldn't muster the forces to defend themselves.
As for Russia, that’s how every economy reacts to a depression, after the central Govt stabilizes the economy, it booms until it hits maximum capacity then it slows when the industries change or dry up, just wait in 10 years they'll be back in dire straits.

soxfan94's photo
Wed 01/23/08 12:10 PM
That's a good point about Japan...it would be interesting to see which side they would take (if any?). Not that I want it to come to that of course.
Agreed about our country becoming too imperialistic and stretched far too thin. We're becoming more vulnerable each year.
I'll still have to disagree with you on Russia though. I don't see their economy busting in the next decade or two. Their leaders are too smart and iron fisted not to ensure that whatever needs to be done will be done. In my opinion, it will be a reincarnation of the Stalinist era. Of course, if such actions annoy westerners enough, they may pull out and then the economy would be in trouble...but the funny thing about foreign investors is that when they see money available to be made, they don't ask questions about how it's getting in their pockets. They don't care.

Runpenzo's photo
Wed 01/23/08 12:22 PM
Yeah but if the american gov't cuts intrest rates to the bare bones (which they're doing right now) trying to bring american money back to america, the'll cut operating costs in america and the Russian investors will flock back to the US, for the propriety securities and legislative power with lobbists... And if Russia did return to a stalinist regieme, their economy would slow faster as the govn't would abolish free trade, and they'd have to control all production within their economy, I think that would kill russia faster than an embargo...

soxfan94's photo
Wed 01/23/08 12:28 PM
Good point, I guess we'll have to wait and see. And cross our fingers. And pray. And...ah hell, we're pretty much screwed no matter what.

Runpenzo's photo
Wed 01/23/08 12:29 PM

Good point, I guess we'll have to wait and see. And cross our fingers. And pray. And...ah hell, we're pretty much screwed no matter what.

My sediments exactly, thats why I'm going to lead the revolution. happy

smo's photo
Wed 01/23/08 12:57 PM
Russia Strengthening: Yes, I would say that Russia is a SUPER, SUPER POWER , they are said to have THOUSANDS of manned spacecraft(cosmospheres) with electromagnetic weapons on them circling right above our heads, and have the ability to shoot anything, anywhere, at anytime. Why do you suppose Georgie has not attacked Iran ,yet??It is not because he doesn't want to. I have doubts whether he has any satellites to guide his missiles with. I figure Russia and China have shot them all down. My next guess is that is why they tried to sneak those war heads from North Dakota to Louisiana or Texas on a plane and then try to deliver them to Iran by plane and they got found out what they were up to, and Russia was ready and waiting for them.How is that for speculating? Russia also has no national debt, not bad shape financially, they ran a bunch of their crooks out of the country, by putting them up for trial , and some escaped before the trials to Israel, and other places. Some of them may be here or England or both. Oil prices went way up and Russia has lots of its own oil, so they are getting richer by the day. Putin has a policy of Live and let Live!! But the US and Israel ,keep jerking his Chain, I don't think they should be picking on Russia, since Russia is well blessed with nuclear weapons too, not counting all their star wars stuff. Plus Russia has warned us not to attack Iran ,because they would consider it the same as if we attacked Russia. Russia and China agree on one thing at least: Don't let the US and Israel and England take over the world.