April 25, 2007

The call for American troops to promptly get out of Iraq raises the
question of what exactly would happen if the U.S. forces did leave, say,
by the end of the year. If we stay in Iraq, we delay, perhaps even
prevent, the expulsion of the Sunni Arab minority (they used to be ten
percent of the population, but are now down to about five percent, and
are still the source of most of the terrorism.) Four years ago, the
Sunni Arabs were twenty percent of the population. As the Sunni Arab
population gets smaller, the terrorists have fewer places to hide. This
can be seen in the plan to wall off some of the remaining Sunni Arab
neighborhoods in Baghdad. Analysis of terrorist movements had shown that
these neighborhoods were the sources of most of the suicide bombing
attacks. By restricting road access to one carefully monitored
checkpoint, car bombers would be forced to find another base of
operations, and be more likely to get caught. The wall would also keep
out Shia death squads, who are expected to return once the security
build up in Baghdad is over, later this year. But the way Arab politics
works, the wall building got stopped when the Israeli security wall was
invoked. Despite the fact that the Israeli security wall stopped terror
attacks, that wall, and by association all similar walls, are considered
evil. You can't do it, even though the purpose of the wall was explained
to Iraqi politicians, who understood and approved it, before
construction began. The Sunnis would rather be dead, than not be
politically correct, and the Shia agreed. The continuing suicide bomb
attacks on Shia Arabs has only increased the belief among the Shia that
the Sunni Arabs have to go.


If we leave, two things happen. First, the Kurds and Shia Arabs take
care of the Sunni Arab terrorists the traditional Middle Eastern way.
That gets very ugly, with massive civilian casualties and most of the
Sunni Arab population turning into refugees. Any criticism is deflected
by insisting its all about self-defense and justice for Saddams victims.



There's also the risk of a civil war between Shia Arab factions (backed
by Iran and the Arab Gulf states, respectively.) The Turks will keep the
Kurds in check, no matter what, although if we leave the Turks will be
tempted to annex northern Iraq (and its oil fields), which used to be
part of Turkey (not an imperial province), until 1919.



The Shia Arabs are now about two-thirds of the population, and they are
gearing up for a real civil war. The factions backed Iran (especially
the Sadr and Badr groups) are trying to take control by force. The
majority of Shia Arabs want power, but they don't want a religious
dictatorship. These "democratic" Shia Arabs are arming and getting more
violent in their resistance to Iran-sponsored militants. More of the
terrorism in Shia areas (which is a small fraction of what the Sunni
Arab terrorists are creating) is directed against other Shia political
groups, not foreign troops.



There's always the threat that Iran would simply invade Iraq, and
install an "Islamic Republic" (religious dictatorship similar to the one
in Iran). With no American troops there, what's to prevent this? The
Arab Gulf States cannot stop the Iranians, although the Turks might be
persuaded to. The Iranians could avoid that by making a side deal with
the Turks, involving how to handle the Kurds, before going in. The
Iranian government sees democratic Iraq as a threat, because most
Iranians want a real democracy, and they are not getting it because of
the religious dictatorship they are stuck with. The Iranian radical
groups, in the form of the Quds Force, keeps the pot boiling in Shia
Iraq so that Iraq does not become a base for Iranian democrats.



Meanwhile, opponents of the Iraqi operations back in the United States
are getting nervous about the success of the security operations in
Baghdad and its suburbs. The fact that nearly all the Sunni Arab tribes
have joined the government is seen as a political disaster by many U.S.
politicians who have declared Iraq a failed venture for the United
States. It's a bizarre situation, and long has been. You only have to
visit web sites frequented by Iraqis or American troops, to see that
what is reported in most of the media about Iraq is invented, or
distorted beyond all reason into an alternate reality.



Checking out what Iraqis feel, you also get the impression that everyone
wants the violence to stop. Iraqis want this so bad that they are
willing to give up some of their most coveted goals to have some peace
(and a piece of the booming economy). Indeed, many Iraqi Sunni Arabs
have long suggested that there be no terrorist violence, and that within
a decade or less, the smarter and better organized Sunni Arabs would be
back in charge. While in theory this plan has merit, in practice it
forgets the desire for revenge among Kurds and Shia Arabs. Saddam ruled
by terror for decades, and his thugs wore no masks. The terrorized Kurds
and Shia knew who their tormentors were, and they want blood. This is a
key reason for the continued terror attacks. Many of Saddams thugs
cannot, or will not, flee the country. They have no place to go, and
believe in victory, or death. Getting the Sunni Arabs back in power is
out of the question, so the Sunni Arab terrorists are basically fighting
to the death. One way or another, they are going to die. The only
question is, how many Iraqis and Americans will they be able to take
along.

shadow----did you write this? it is very good and pretty much says what
Ive been harping about for the last few days, albeit better than i could
articulate.

well if you wrote it or not doesnt really matter, i personally like the
post it is probably the best one ive seen from you.

thanks


doc