Topic: Obama report that promised low unemployment.
willing2's photo
Mon 11/09/09 06:29 PM
http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf

http://blog.heritage.org/

Here are some fun parts.

Table 1
Aggregate Effect of the Recovery Package on GDP and Jobs in 2010Q4
Real GDP (billions
of chained 2000 $) Payroll Employment
Without Stimulus $11,770 133,876,000
With Stimulus $12,203 137,550,000
Effect of Package Increase GDP by 3.7% Increase jobs by 3,675,000
Source: Authors’ calculations based on methodology described above and multipliers
described in Appendix 1.
The table shows that we expect the plan to more than meet the goal of creating or saving 3 million
jobs by 2010Q4. There are two important points to note, however:
First, the likely scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost
nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of stimulus,
the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential
total job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the
unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the
approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan.1

________________________________________________________________________________

Notice, they said that without the stimulus, we could lose 3 to 4 million jobs. How many have we lost WITH it???

In another part of the Obama report, they admit their report isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Look....

It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant
margins of error. There is the obvious uncertainty that comes from modeling a hypothetical
package rather than the final legislation passed by the Congress. But, there is the more fundamental
uncertainty that comes with any estimate of the effects of a program. Our estimates of economic
relationships and rules of thumb are derived from historical experience and so will not apply exactly
in any given episode. Furthermore, the uncertainty is surely higher than normal now because the
current recession is unusual both in its fundamental causes and its severity.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Allow me to translate. "It should be understood that we are only trying to push our socialist agenda down the throats of the American people. So, we thought that if we could just come up with some fresh empty promises, we could BS America into thinking it is a GOOD IDEA to pay off your debts by going FURTHER into debt. Of course, we are counting on leftist lemmings to follow suit. And, if anyone on the right protests our insane plans, we will issue a report that says that Fox News put them up to it and Fox News isn't real. By the way, we included a lot of charts and figures in this report. Although we want Americans to buy into them, all of our findings are BS. Basically, our report isn't worth the paper it's printed on. But, we figured that, like the stimulus bill itself, no one would read this, either."

There you have it.

msharmony's photo
Mon 11/09/09 06:33 PM

http://otrans.3cdn.net/45593e8ecbd339d074_l3m6bt1te.pdf

http://blog.heritage.org/

Here are some fun parts.

Table 1
Aggregate Effect of the Recovery Package on GDP and Jobs in 2010Q4
Real GDP (billions
of chained 2000 $) Payroll Employment
Without Stimulus $11,770 133,876,000
With Stimulus $12,203 137,550,000
Effect of Package Increase GDP by 3.7% Increase jobs by 3,675,000
Source: Authors’ calculations based on methodology described above and multipliers
described in Appendix 1.
The table shows that we expect the plan to more than meet the goal of creating or saving 3 million
jobs by 2010Q4. There are two important points to note, however:
First, the likely scale of employment loss is extremely large. The U.S. economy has already lost
nearly 2.6 million jobs since the business cycle peak in December 2007. In the absence of stimulus,
the economy could lose another 3 to 4 million more. Thus, we are working to counter a potential
total job loss of at least 5 million. As Figure 1 shows, even with the large prototypical package, the
unemployment rate in 2010Q4 is predicted to be approximately 7.0%, which is well below the
approximately 8.8% that would result in the absence of a plan.1

________________________________________________________________________________

Notice, they said that without the stimulus, we could lose 3 to 4 million jobs. How many have we lost WITH it???

In another part of the Obama report, they admit their report isn't worth the paper it's printed on. Look....

It should be understood that all of the estimates presented in this memo are subject to significant
margins of error. There is the obvious uncertainty that comes from modeling a hypothetical
package rather than the final legislation passed by the Congress. But, there is the more fundamental
uncertainty that comes with any estimate of the effects of a program. Our estimates of economic
relationships and rules of thumb are derived from historical experience and so will not apply exactly
in any given episode. Furthermore, the uncertainty is surely higher than normal now because the
current recession is unusual both in its fundamental causes and its severity.

_______________________________________________________________________________

Allow me to translate. "It should be understood that we are only trying to push our socialist agenda down the throats of the American people. So, we thought that if we could just come up with some fresh empty promises, we could BS America into thinking it is a GOOD IDEA to pay off your debts by going FURTHER into debt. Of course, we are counting on leftist lemmings to follow suit. And, if anyone on the right protests our insane plans, we will issue a report that says that Fox News put them up to it and Fox News isn't real. By the way, we included a lot of charts and figures in this report. Although we want Americans to buy into them, all of our findings are BS. Basically, our report isn't worth the paper it's printed on. But, we figured that, like the stimulus bill itself, no one would read this, either."

There you have it.



First, I dont feel this was forced upon me and of course I would expect unemployment figures to be grim with or without the stimulus package. I think its time to suck it up and move on,,,,,figure out where to go from here