http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSN1220665620080912


Merrill now in shorts' sights as Lehman crumbles

By Elinor Comlay

NEW YORK (Reuters) - The crisis of confidence in Lehman Brothers (LEH.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) has led to fallout throughout the financial sector -- especially for larger rival Merrill Lynch & Co Inc (MER.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz).

The problem for Merrill is that short-sellers regard it as the next weakest investment bank after the crumbling Lehman and the crumbled Bear Stearns, which was sold at a firesale price in March.

"People are saying, 'Who's next on the list?'" said Matt McCormick, portfolio manager and banking analyst at Bahl & Gaynor in Cincinnati.

The result in the market was clear. Merrill Lynch shares lost about a third of their value this week, while peers Citigroup Co (C.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) and Morgan Stanley (MS.N: Quote, Profile, Research, Stock Buzz) only lost 2 percent and 4 percent, respectively.

A Merrill Lynch spokesman declined to comment.

Like Lehman and Bear, Merrill has holdings of structured debt that are triggering write-downs and calling into question its overall capital position.

Merrill Lynch has been one of the hardest hit firms over the course of the year-old credit crisis, posting well over $40 billion in write-downs and credit losses and selling valuable assets to raise capital.

In the second quarter, Chief Executive John Thain sold the bank's prized 20 percent stake in news company Bloomberg LLP and arranged to sell a banking administrator company to balance out $9.4 billion in losses and write-downs.

Investors are bracing for more bad news in the third quarter, after Thain arranged to sell $30 billion in complex debt securities to a private equity firm in July, taking more than $5 billion in write-downs at the same time.

Merrill also provided financing to Dallas-based private equity firm Lone Star Funds and sold those securities at 22 cents on the dollar. While the Lone Star deal removed a large, toxic weight from Thain's shoulders, there are still problem assets on Merrill's books, according to analysts.

"There's concerns they still have commercial mortgage exposure and people feel that's worsening," said Albert Yu, portfolio manager and analyst at Clover Capital Management, which does not have a position in Merrill.

Looming large among investors' worries about Merrill are mortgage-backed securities and other structured debt held at two of its banking subsidiaries -- Merrill Lynch Bank USA and Merrill Lynch Bank & Trust Co.

In the second quarter, structured debt held by these subsidiaries was responsible for losses of $1.7 billion. That could worsen in the third quarter as sales of these securities has set a low market price.

One hedge fund manager who is short Merrill said he sees these banks, which hold loans and deposits made through Merrill's network of financial brokers, needing more capital, which will have to be provided by the parent.

"Merrill's in a box, but people don't realize it," he said.

According to the most recent data from the New York Stock Exchange, short interest in Merrill Lynch increased 5.31 percent, to 44.5 million on August 29, compared with 42.3 million on August 15. Over the same period, short interest on average across the NYSE slipped 0.5 percent.

Merrill has a free float of 1.49 billion shares.

The difficulty for Merrill Lynch is that it has valuable assets that aren't reflected in its share price.

According to a research report from Citigroup on Friday, Merrill's stake in investment manager BlackRock is worth about $9 a share and its wealth management franchise -- the largest by number of brokers and by assets -- is worth $16 per share. Citi analysts attributed an additional $15 per share to the bank's institutional business.

"Merrill Lynch has some very valuable assets, but the same is true of most Wall Street companies," said John Stein, co-founder of FSI Group in Cincinnati, which doesn't own Merrill Lynch shares.

"Shorts have made a lot of money of late, and one thing about Wall Street is when something works, they tend to keep doing it," he added.

As Merrill shares decline, it makes raising any further equity more expensive, noted Stein.

"It may force a strategic decision on to Merrill," he said, noting Lehman was prompted to raise capital following Bear Stearns' takeover, but it came too late to the idea of a strategic partnership.

"I think what's going on with Lehman will likely force Merrill to look for partners sooner rather than later."

(Reporting by Elinor Comlay, additional reporting by Dan Wilchins; Editing by Gary Hill)

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The consolidation of our banking system into the control of either the member banks of the Fed or the Federal Government is just about done with. Then what?

Well, they're (we're) holding the bag of a $9.6T debt with trillions more in SS & Medicare liabilities coming due over the next 30-40 years. What happens if China and Russia call their notes?

From what I gather, based on International Law, they can claim our national resources until the debt is cleared. If I'm wrong, someone show me where,please.

I've been tracking the way we've mortgaged our country for awhile.

we sell the currency to mexico for 2 cents on the dollar and print new money

duh.

Hmmm, we sell it to Mexico and print more money...


Yea, thats how to solidify the economy, just print more money.

Have you ever heard of the Laws of Supply and Demand?

If there is a whole truck load of fiat currency getting printed all the time, what do you think that does to the manufactured value of the currency already in the market?

selling the money supply to Mexico is a joke.

They know what pennies on the dollar means.


let it crash.

The chinese and the foreign holders of the national debt have their collateral in the bond market and treasuries.

The smart ones have already been buying stocks and seeking voting stakes in multinational cor[porate boards.

The smart hoarders don't invest in treasurues anymore, to the degree they were even last year.

The whole system is headed towards a globalized M and A raid.

World Inc. is coming.

the new currency will reflect corporate oversight.

The new war is over econmic domination and is a big monopoly play of 5%ers sharing in everything.

Twenty globalk players can control every board of directors with impunity and abrogate any consttutional constraint and wield econimic deprivation to those rogue nations that do not acceed to their demands...


by fiat.


and there is nothing that anyone can do except disengage them all now while we still can.

They don't own it all yet.

we can tank it first.

but it will cost living like paupers for many generations.


better to be free and ppor than enslaved and indentured in perpetuity.


wake up America!!!!!!!!

Well, every once and awhile Wouldee and I get on the same page, here's the issue, would you like to explain what happens when it crashes?

I do remember a certain scumbag named North doing some evil sh!t for CoG.

Rex 84 ring a bell?

If we invested more in producing over the past several years and less on destroying, maybe we'd be in better shape. Blowing another $600B we don't have in Iraq hasn't helped. Our cold war enemies must be laughing as they swim in cash and own us.

Wasn't one of Bin Ladens stated goals to crush us by making us spend ourselves into economic ruin?

yea, I thought so.

SO if Bush co. and a complicit congress are doing Bin Ladens bidding, doesn't that mean they are providing aid and comfort to the terrorists?