Topic: Rumors of RP campaign demise greatly exaggerated | |
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http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/reawakening-liberty/2012/mar/31/rumors-ron-paul-campaign-demise-greatly-exaggerate/ Rumors of Ron Paul campaign demise greatly exaggerated TAMPA, March 31, 2012 In their mad dash to create the long awaited general election narrative, media outlets have pronounced Ron Paul’s campaign dead. They now speculate about what his supporters may do when he drops out. The Associated Press reports that Romney has over ten times the delegates that Ron Paul has secured. Reuters reports that Paul is far behind in Wisconsin and that his supporters have finally conceded that he can’t win the nomination. None of this is true. Romney has not secured 568 delegates. Hundreds of those delegates won’t be determined until Republican state conventions, many of which haven’t happened yet. As I’ve reported before, there is very credible evidence that Ron Paul will emerge from those conventions with the majority of delegates in many states. Texas, New York and California haven’t even held their primaries yet. Those three states alone control over four hundred delegates. In many states, there is no cause-effect relationship between the popular vote and the delegates awarded to each candidate. Delegates are awarded via a completely separate process that doesn’t utilize the popular vote totals in any way. The purpose of the popular vote is to inform the eventual delegates of the preferences of voters in their states. That’s why many of those states allow Democrats and independents to vote. They want the delegates to know who those voters prefer. That tells them who has the best chance to win in the general election. In most years, the media can get away with reporting on the nomination contest as they are now. They can assume that the candidates will receive roughly the same percentage of delegates from each state as the percentage they received in the popular vote. That isn’t accurate reporting, but it usually comes out in the wash, especially as far as the winner is concerned. However, there are many things different in this year’s race and there is a good chance that much of the media are going to look silly come August. First, Mitt Romney is probably the weakest Republican “frontrunner” in several decades. Remember, Republicans weren’t exactly energized by John McCain and he soundly defeated Romney four years ago. Romney’s campaign has been able to get supporters to take fifteen minutes to stop at a polling place and pull a lever, but it’s much more difficult to get them to participate in a delegate process that takes months to complete. Ron Paul’s supporters are completely the opposite. While he has not pulled off a “beauty contest” win, his supporters are willing to walk through fire to see him become president. They have learned Robert’s Rules of Order, stayed behind after caucus popular votes, and taken over the delegations in many counties in caucus states. The Iowa Republican Party has confirmed that Paul and Santorum are in a dead heat for the state’s delegates and that Paul may win the majority. That bears no resemblance to the popular vote in Iowa’s caucus, where Santorum narrowly defeated Romney and Paul came in third. The devotion of Paul’s supporters isn’t only a factor in the caucus states. In those states where the popular vote does bind the delegates to the winner, there is still an important question. Who are those delegates? Do they truly support the winner of the primary vote? Or are they Paul supporters? There is no reason to believe that Paul is not well represented among delegates in those states as well. Their delegates are obligated to vote for the winner of the primary during the first round of voting at the RNC. However, if no candidate gets 1,144 votes, even they are now unbound and can vote for any candidate on the second ballot. If it becomes necessary, that vote could be very interesting. The media started this election cycle by completely ignoring Ron Paul’s campaign. As his poll numbers rose and the crowds at his rallies grew into the thousands, they began giving him grudging respect. Now, they want to pronounce his campaign over and even go so far as to speak for his supporters. There’s only one problem. Paul and his supporters aren’t going anywhere and this race is far from over. The Paul campaign’s senior advisor Doug Wead documents many examples of Ron Paul’s delegate strategy yielding much better results than the media are reporting. Assuming he’s right, Romney is unlikely to clinch the nomination during the first vote at the national convention. If he doesn’t, Paul’s understated army of delegates could mean big surprises in Tampa. |
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"Who are those delegates? Do they truly support the winner of the primary vote? Or are they Paul supporters?"
Let's hope the delegates stick with their actions of the past and NOT support the popular vote candidate. Let's hope they support Paul knowing he's the only Republican candidate who could take on Obama. Let's hope this turn to common sense continues on up through the people and into the government--even through a faulty democratic method of voting. Who is Ron Paul? |
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http://communities.washingtontimes.com/neighborhood/reawakening-liberty/2012/mar/31/rumors-ron-paul-campaign-demise-greatly-exaggerate/ Rumors of Ron Paul campaign demise greatly exaggerated TAMPA, March 31, 2012 In their mad dash to create the long awaited general election narrative, media outlets have pronounced Ron Paul’s campaign dead. They now speculate about what his supporters may do when he drops out. The Associated Press reports that Romney has over ten times the delegates that Ron Paul has secured. Reuters reports that Paul is far behind in Wisconsin and that his supporters have finally conceded that he can’t win the nomination. None of this is true. Romney has not secured 568 delegates. Hundreds of those delegates won’t be determined until Republican state conventions, many of which haven’t happened yet. As I’ve reported before, there is very credible evidence that Ron Paul will emerge from those conventions with the majority of delegates in many states. Texas, New York and California haven’t even held their primaries yet. Those three states alone control over four hundred delegates. In many states, there is no cause-effect relationship between the popular vote and the delegates awarded to each candidate. Delegates are awarded via a completely separate process that doesn’t utilize the popular vote totals in any way. The purpose of the popular vote is to inform the eventual delegates of the preferences of voters in their states. That’s why many of those states allow Democrats and independents to vote. They want the delegates to know who those voters prefer. That tells them who has the best chance to win in the general election. In most years, the media can get away with reporting on the nomination contest as they are now. They can assume that the candidates will receive roughly the same percentage of delegates from each state as the percentage they received in the popular vote. That isn’t accurate reporting, but it usually comes out in the wash, especially as far as the winner is concerned. However, there are many things different in this year’s race and there is a good chance that much of the media are going to look silly come August. First, Mitt Romney is probably the weakest Republican “frontrunner” in several decades. Remember, Republicans weren’t exactly energized by John McCain and he soundly defeated Romney four years ago. Romney’s campaign has been able to get supporters to take fifteen minutes to stop at a polling place and pull a lever, but it’s much more difficult to get them to participate in a delegate process that takes months to complete. Ron Paul’s supporters are completely the opposite. While he has not pulled off a “beauty contest” win, his supporters are willing to walk through fire to see him become president. They have learned Robert’s Rules of Order, stayed behind after caucus popular votes, and taken over the delegations in many counties in caucus states. The Iowa Republican Party has confirmed that Paul and Santorum are in a dead heat for the state’s delegates and that Paul may win the majority. That bears no resemblance to the popular vote in Iowa’s caucus, where Santorum narrowly defeated Romney and Paul came in third. The devotion of Paul’s supporters isn’t only a factor in the caucus states. In those states where the popular vote does bind the delegates to the winner, there is still an important question. Who are those delegates? Do they truly support the winner of the primary vote? Or are they Paul supporters? There is no reason to believe that Paul is not well represented among delegates in those states as well. Their delegates are obligated to vote for the winner of the primary during the first round of voting at the RNC. However, if no candidate gets 1,144 votes, even they are now unbound and can vote for any candidate on the second ballot. If it becomes necessary, that vote could be very interesting. The media started this election cycle by completely ignoring Ron Paul’s campaign. As his poll numbers rose and the crowds at his rallies grew into the thousands, they began giving him grudging respect. Now, they want to pronounce his campaign over and even go so far as to speak for his supporters. There’s only one problem. Paul and his supporters aren’t going anywhere and this race is far from over. The Paul campaign’s senior advisor Doug Wead documents many examples of Ron Paul’s delegate strategy yielding much better results than the media are reporting. Assuming he’s right, Romney is unlikely to clinch the nomination during the first vote at the national convention. If he doesn’t, Paul’s understated army of delegates could mean big surprises in Tampa. ![]() ![]() |
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"Who are those delegates? Do they truly support the winner of the primary vote? Or are they Paul supporters?" Let's hope the delegates stick with their actions of the past and NOT support the popular vote candidate. Let's hope they support Paul knowing he's the only Republican candidate who could take on Obama. Let's hope this turn to common sense continues on up through the people and into the government--even through a faulty democratic method of voting. Who is Ron Paul? Ron Paul is a loon. |
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Rude and obnoxious behavior is easy for some, even easier for others, who persist in annoyances to negatively effect other persons, places or events, even after being criticized for it. Newt the Grinch is a good example, leading the charge to impeach a President while secretly and deceitfully performing in the same devious acts himself. These people are small little creatures who have NO self worth other than that they think themselves to have, which is an opinion NOT shared by those bombarded by their actions, or observers of it. Self gratifying failures who can't see the forest thru the trees and continue despite their inevitable embarrassment by these shortcomings and failures, time and time again. They hide their failure in the ridicule of others! They simply want attention, negative or otherwise, because making any mark in their eyes is success, even if it is negative, or their actions prove annoying or harmful/hurtful to others. Many are bipolar, and for them there is some excuse....and medication, most are just rude and obnoxious by choice, and for them there is no excuse. We all know 1 or 2 of these people..... |
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Edited by
Sojourning_Soul
on
Tue 04/03/12 07:20 AM
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A closer delegate count than you will hear or see on the MSM.
As stated in the video, an "actual" delegate count is impossible at this point in the race as many delegate caucuses are still ongoing and will be till June or so, but the site shown has a better understanding of the process than the delegate count MSM would like to feed you from the straw poll beauty contests. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gyv8U1U_cTU |
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Edited by
Sojourning_Soul
on
Tue 04/03/12 01:21 PM
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For those who "thought" they knew the delegate process.....
Ron Paul winning delegates Jeffrey Phelps Denver Libertarian Examiner ... The 2012 Race for the Republican Nomination turns toward this week’s primaries in D.C., Maryland, Mississippi and Wisconsin all eyes are on so-called “front-runners” like Romney who the media says is running away with the Delegates and is the “most likely” nominee. If you turn on the television today you have a very good chance of seeing the media’s general estimated delegate count for the four remaining “Republicans” that are vying for the 2012 nod. Although the numbers vary slightly depending on which mainstream source used, currently, the establishment’s media is displaying the approx. totals as Romney leading with around 550 delegates, Santorum with around 240, Gingrich around 130, and Ron Paul trailing the pack with usually less than 50. Are these numbers accurate? Let’s find out. The first problem we see when studying delegate counts comes from the very first caucus held in Iowa back in January. Although the media says they “estimate” the delegate count as proportionate to the percentages of votes won in each caucus, of Iowa’s 25 available delegate seats, even as Santorum, Romney and Paul basically split the votes there relatively evenly, somehow the media's estimated delegate count shows Santorum as winning 13 delegates and Romney winning the other 12….as if Paul received no votes whatsoever. With that being said, if taking percentages of caucus votes into account to determine the estimated final delegate totals, the media’s general delegate estimate is already faulty after just the first caucus. However, as we dig even deeper into the situation those estimated delegate counts are actually much further flawed than even the Iowa example shows. Even though you haven't heard much about it in the media, in all the caucus states around the country Ron Paul’s delegate strategy is actually paying off as county after county and district after district are sending more Ron Paul Delegates to State Conventions than any other candidate. How is that possible? First and foremost, in the caucus states the original caucus that takes place is actually only a straw poll and truly only serves to inform the voters of each precinct as to where their perspective precinct’s voters generally stand. The real elections don’t actually take place until immediately thereafter when those who wish to become delegates stay behind after everyone else goes home. This is where the process begins to narrow down the hundreds or thousands from each caucus state that want to become a delegate. Individuals from each precinct that want to become a delegate pitch each other as to why they each deserve to represent their precinct at their County’s Convention. They then hold another election to decide who will fill those available seats and vote those individuals to those County Conventions, which typically takes place a couple weeks later, and many already have. The process basically repeats itself at the County level as all those who were voted to County Conventions then vote to see who of those will represent their county at the district level, narrowing the field down even further. From there, District Delegates will then vote a week or two later to see who will ultimately be selected to State Conventions, from there to the National Convention, where in Iowa’s case only 25 National Delegate seats are available. Only then will the American people finally get to know the exact amount of delegates each candidate receives from the caucus states because it is there at the National Convention that those delegates finally make the official vote for the candidate of their choice. Additionally, as these County and District Conventions continue to unfold, it is becoming widely evident that Ron Paul’s supporters have been the most educated on this process and also seem to be the most dedicated thus far. Thousands of Paul Delegate hopefuls have been overrunning County and District Conventions all over the country. In turn, it has been mostly Paul Delegates that continue to move on to the next successive convention to this point, unless GOP Party ‘officials’ from those precinct, County or District Conventions purposely tried to illegally force Paul’s supporters from participating. Unfortunately, that is something that has happened in quite a few locations around the country. Being that as it is, in the caucus states that have actually held their straw poll and Precinct, County and District Conventions already, with so many Paul Delegates taking over the majority of the districts thus far, it is almost a done deal that Ron Paul will likely win much of the available delegate seats from many of the caucus states. Even in some of the “primary” states like Virginia and Oklahoma there are portions of delegate seats available that are not bound to the original election and are open to any candidate that made the original ballot. These delegate seats will be apportioned in separate elections much like the caucus states. Under these circumstances, if the establishment’s media continues to merely report an estimate proportionately based on the initial caucus straw poll in each caucus state, the American people will continue to be misled about what the actual count may be. It will also be very interesting to see how the media handles the real numbers as they start to emerge from the National Convention. Ron Paul may actually currently be, by some estimates, in 3rd or even 2nd place overall behind Romney and truly seems to be gaining steam as the process continues to unfold. Some in the GOP have shuttered at the fact that young Ron Paul supporters have done their homework and decided to go out in mass to attempt forcing their candidate into the Republican nomination and have tried to do everything they can to stop them from doing so. The problem with that is Ron Paul’s delegate hopefuls have truly done their homework, know the GOP’s election laws and are following them by the book, something the other candidate’s supporters aren’t doing. This forces anyone trying to stop them to break the rules to do so. The problem the establishment is having with even that scenario is that so many legal Paul Delegate hopefuls have decided to participate this time that the establishment doesn’t have the organization in place to cover the incredible amount of locations being won over by Paul supporters, and in turn Paul’s Delegates are winning the majority of the Caucus State Delegates in many of those states anyway. Stay tuned as this remarkable story continues to unfold. |
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