The Collapse of ’09
by Gerald Celente


The "Panic of ’08" will be followed by "The Collapse of ’09." In 2008, when the world’s largest financial firms and equity markets crumbled, Wall Street’s woes preoccupied the media.

In 2009, the focus will broaden to include a range of calamities that will leave no sector unscathed. Next in line is retail, which accounts for some 70 percent of consumer spending, 26 percent of which is holiday sales.

After the numbers are tallied to reveal a dismal retail Christmas, more big chain bankruptcies will follow. Besides leaving masses unemployed, defunct retailers will leave behind thousands of empty stores. Who will rent them? Nobody!

Add to these empties commercial space vacated by defunct financial firms and an array of troubled businesses, from restaurants to architectural firms, to high-tech operations, to offset printers, etc., etc. The inescapable result (that we predicted over a year ago and is only now being discussed in the business media) is a commercial real estate bust that will be costlier, wreak greater havoc and prove more intractable than the residential market decline.

Because most people don’t live and shop on Wall Street, the "Panic of ’08" was viewed by Main Street as if from afar – even though many were losing money. But when commercial real estate crashes, it will hit much closer to home. The depressive atmosphere of thinly shopped, half-vacant malls will strike emotional chords and all the senses.

In office buildings, vacant floors and empty cubicles will dampen the workday spirit of the still-employed; ever-present reminders of laid-off friends and colleagues and of the fragility of employment.

Abandoned, untended business and industrial parks will highlight the already mournful scene. In cities studded with soaring towers and new construction predicated on eternal economic growth, streets lined with "For Rent/For Sale" signs will complement stilled cranes and uncompleted buildings.

As retail and commercial real estate collapse, the credit card sector and all its interrelated processing and back office support businesses will suffer and be forced to scale back. Hordes of consumers who have been living off credit cards and racking up debt to the limit will lack the funds to service their debt… much less pay it off, and they will be forced to default. Given the nearly $3 trillion in consumer debt at risk (excluding auto and mortgage) an inevitable default snowball will add momentum to the in-progress Collapse of ’09.

While we alone predicted the "Panic of ’08" (and even took out the domain name "Panicof08.com" on 7 November 2007), we are not alone in predicting a Depression.

The "D" word is being uttered – in some cases by those who have the most to lose and whose best interests are not served by spreading gloom and doom. "The world and country are in a depression," said celebrity tycoon Donald Trump. He then later softened the blow, downgrading it to a "virtual depression."

"Virtual" to the few who will never have to worry where the next dollar will come from, it will be painfully real and hardly virtual to the multitudes who are and will be worrying. The virally proliferating Greatest Depression is the Trend of Trends for 2009.

Even so, beware! Over the course of free-falling 2009, the word from most official sources will be "recession," and from the few mainstream trophy pessimists, "deep recession."

For example, the oft-quoted naysayer, Nouriel Roubini, New York University professor of economics, forecasts a two-year recession … not Depression. On the sunnier side of Wall Street, the Federal Reserve predicts the US economy will contract only through the middle of 2009 and pledged, "In any event, the Committee agreed to take whatever steps were necessary to support the recovery."

What "steps"? The Bernanke Two-Step? Adjust interest rates or print more money? Neither stopped the credit crisis from worsening, the real estate market from tanking or the stock markets from crashing.

It was Fed finagling, Washington deregulation and Wall Street’s compulsive gambling that created the crisis. To trust or to seriously consider pronouncements, analyses and predictions made by any of these sources is an exercise in willful self-deception. Yet, with pensions, IRAs, 401ks, stocks and mutual funds evaporating, many of those most affected deny reality and take hope that forecasts made by proven incompetents will miraculously restore their losses.

Throughout the many years leading up to what we term the "Greatest Depression," The Trends Research Institute provided copious data and Globalnomic analysis to support our forecasts of economic upheaval. In the past year alone, we have provided so much hard evidence (housings starts, home sales, foreclosures, bankruptcies, bank failures, unemployment figures, stock indices, leading economic indicators, retail sales, etc.) that further elaboration should be superfluous.

Those waiting to hear the "D" word from economic experts, talking heads and TV anchors before taking action will most certainly regret their indecisiveness.

Absent from the economic scenarios ranging from second quarter recovery, deep recession and "virtual" depression are the multiplicity of social, environmental, health, political, emotional/psychological and geopolitical factors that point beyond just Depression. They point to The Decline and Fall of Empire America.

Well before Inauguration Day, Barack Obama was cast as the next Franklin Delano Roosevelt. If he follows in FDR’s footsteps, he could freeze deposits by declaring a "holiday" to stop a run on the banks. While FDIC insurance may cover deposits, even after banks reopen, withdrawal amounts may be restricted. (As the Argentine government did in 2001–2002.)

Author’s Note: Suspicious of the soundness of the banking system, I requested to withdraw a substantial sum from our Key Bank account, leaving funds sufficient to cover ongoing business operations. First they tried to dissuade me, then they stonewalled me, and finally they turned openly hostile.

I was forced to sign a series of documents, including one acknowledging that since I was carrying a large sum, I could be the target of a robbery. To enhance that possibility, the teller slammed down the bag of cash on the counter and publicly announced the sum.

Despite repeated requests in the days preceding my withdrawal to get the cash in hundreds, they gave it to me in twenties, making for a bag five times the size and more robber-friendly. When I complained to the bank manager who had processed the request, the response amounted to "take it or leave it."

This will not be an isolated event. If you attempt to withdraw a large chunk of money from your account, negotiate the details in advance and anticipate possible hassle and obstruction.

We’ve heard similar accounts from clients and Trends Journal subscribers who, over the past several months, tried to close out mutual funds, 401ks and assorted sinking equities. They were dissuaded, cajoled, belittled and arm-twisted by brokers desperate to keep their accounts. Many caved in under the pressure, didn’t close them and lost most of what they had.

So, we leave you with a Greatest Depression consideration: How safe is your money? How sound is your bank? At the end of November, Citigroup, once America’s largest bank, was on the rocks. Fifty-two thousand employees were laid off. In just three days, its stock lost more than half its value. Rumors swirled that Citi was so desperate they were looking to sell or split up the company.

Is your money deposited in a local bank whose reputation you can bank on? Are you with a teetering giant or a poorly-managed regional? If either of the latter, it would be in your best interest to assess the risks.

Take some out if you think there is risk; take it all out if you think there’s high risk. You may consider spreading it around and even banking abroad … after all, this is the Global Age.






March 22, 2009

Gerald Celente is founder and director of The Trends Research Institute, author of Trends 2000 and Trend Tracking (Warner Books), and publisher of The Trends Journal. He has been forecasting trends since 1980, and recently called “The Collapse of ’09.”

http://www.lewrockwell.com/orig10/celente1.html

The collapse as you call it has been coming on a couple of years. It has been a credit America for so long that it is time to pay up.

Last year there were Malls that were losing their retailers left and right. Becoming nearly ghost like. Many shops such as Macy's Penny's, big shoe stores and many others were all shutting down.
We knew those malls were going to have to close shop. They couldn't keep open without someone filling those empty halls.

There have been large franchise restaurants to close down on '08. Mini malls that are barely there.

It has been coming...it will get worse before it gets better. It always does.

When things at home begin to look grim as they do...I always say "it gets worse before it gets better". We just have to hang on...ride the ride...and keep on trying.

Kat

I would say it's time to start turing off the T.V. and start reading what the b@st@rds running our country have been writing for decades now.

You are right...for decades we have been complacent and let those we elected make us think they were working for us.

This one needs his chance. At least he has people hoping which is more than I can say has happend in years.

With this president we have a voice...our voices have been heard far and wide during this campaign. If nothing else....we have had an impact like no other time. Now people are involved and are making a difference.

Kat

now it's for decades???? i have been saying it has gone on even before bush!!!!

who's voices have been heard? not mine or many others

here is an interview with this guy..

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9nJ7LM3iyNg


the guy is actually someone who predicted the collapse of Soviet Union also.

Yes decades. The government has done what it wants for decades. It is now... that the people finally quit just bichin and saying someone needs to do something. At last they are standing up and being heard. I am talking about all sides...people have made a noise...the government has heard it.

Kat

here is something related:

GOP predicts doomsday if Obama budget passed


WASHINGTON – Congressional Republicans on Sunday predicted a doomsday scenario of crushing debt and eventual federal bankruptcy if President Barack Obama's massive spending blueprint wins passage.

But a White House adviser dismissed the negative assessments, saying she is "incredibly confident" that the president's policies will "do the job" for the economy.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090322/ap_on_go_pr_wh/obama_economy

atlantis....i saw that one too...almost used it

Well we know Republicans are not the answer that part is for sure. Hopefully now that the people have shown how tired they are of the Republican abuse we will have the change that is needed.

I can understand your sceptisism if we look back and see Bush and McCain and the rest of popular (or better say unpopular) faces ever since the 2000 election and on..but what scares me more is the blind tunnel vision on both sides of dealing with the problem. don't forget, Democrats have been in as the majority in congress since 2006.

Ahh yes, let us not practice blind party politics. All too often i keep hearing "its the republicans' fault" when, in fact, the blame can be placed equaly on the side of the democrats. This is a vicious circle, and what i see are the trustworthy democrats AND republicans agreeing on key issues, i also see the non-trustworthy ones agreeing on key issues.

We have two parties but they do not represent red and blue, instead the represent freedom and government control. Much research needs to be done in order to figure out which person represents which idea.

Night.

yep....it's called politics

GOPs credability???????? Hell they couldnt even bring themselves to tell the American people what was happening to our financial system....I didnt hear GWB once even give a hint it was happening till he stood up and asked for 800 Billion!!!!! NOTHING SAID!!! You mean he didnt know it was happening Funny most of the american people already knew!!!! GOP talking about crushing debt

FYI!!!! Im aganist the bailouts and running up all this debt...The only bright side is its being spent here and not in some ffffff up country that we think we need to save from themselves and "WE" helped create!!!!

You make it sound as if we stopped spending all that money, giving aid to those "f" countries. We haven't, we just printed up some more and are throwing it at everything.

At some point that money is going to make it's way into the market and you can kiss the Dollar goodbye.

Related to this:


China Voices Support For New Global Currency To Replace Dollar

Central bank gets behind move to empower IMF to implement new supranational system

Paul Joseph Watson
Prison Planet.com
Monday, March 23, 2009

China has expressed support for Russia’s proposal to hand the IMF the power to create a new supra-national global currency in response to the call for an alternative to the U.S. dollar as the world reserve currency.

Last week the Kremlin called for the “creation of a supranational reserve currency to be issued by international institutions as part of a reform of the global financial system.”

The Russian proposal stated that the IMF should take the lead in establishing a “superreserve currency accepted by the whole of the international community.”

China today expressed support for the initiative and said it was ready to discuss the proposal at the upcoming G20 meeting in London on April 2.

Hu Xiaolian, vice governor of the country’s Central Bank, said that China, which holds about $2 trillion in foreign exchange reserves, was prepared to debate the issue as “the dollar’s dominance and U.S. economic woes could entail considerable currency fluctuations and affect the world financial situation,” reports RIA Novosti.

The creation of a new supra-national global reserve currency to supplant the U.S. dollar would likely lead to a complete collapse of the greenback, of which trillions are held in in foreign exchange reserves by foreign countries such as China and Japan.

As we have previously highlighted, the elite have exploited the problem that they created to push for increased regulation of the world economic system in the pursuit of a de-facto global financial dictatorship.

The swift and ruthless exploitation of the economic meltdown on behalf of globalists and central banks revolves around their drive to move towards a one world currency system and an unprecedented centralization of global financial power, a fact that financial analysts are finally beginning to realize.

Earlier this month, Ben Bernanke told an elite gathering at the Council on Foreign Relations that a new overarching financial authority should be created and empowered with sweeping new regulatory responsibilities.

British Prime Minister Gordon Brown, EU heads such as Joaquin Almunia and establishment media outlets like the Wall Street Journal amongst many others have all continually used the economic crisis as an excuse to argue for greater financial power, a “new world economic order” in which control is concentrated into fewer hands - with the IMF and the World Bank enjoying the spoils.

UK Business Secretary and top Bilderberg member Peter Mandelson has also pushed for a “Bretton Woods for this century,” to help build the “machinery of global economic governance”.

Former UK Prime Minister Tony Blair, German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy all made the same appeal at a conference in Paris on the future of capitalism earlier this year.

Merkel called for the creation of a new global economic body under the UN, similar to the Security Council, to judge government policy.

Sarkozy called for a “new world, new capitalism” during his speech, as he commented “In capitalism of the 21st century, there is room for the state.”

Meanwhile, Blair called for a new financial order which he said should be constructed upon “values other than the maximum short-term profit.”

The globalists’ call for a centralized global economic order has nothing to do with providing solutions to the crisis but everything to do with providing themselves with more power and control over the world’s financial system.

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Obama is nothing more than the PR man for those who want One World Government, with themselves at the helm. Bush was too, as was his daddy and Clinton in between them.

"We have two parties but they do not represent red and blue, instead the represent freedom and government control. Much research needs to be done in order to figure out which person represents which idea."

It's not called politics, although politics is one of the tools used, it's called Tyranny Vs. Liberty.

There's no question that Celente knows his stuff.