This first link / article is today's date.
* Please don't shoot the messenger , * Just putting it out there for your Mingle2 pleasure.

There is a lot out there on this. Check it out yourself, or not. MOST dates are set for SEPTEMBER 24,2015, (also when the Pope addresses Congress & makes his "announment", also the 4th blood moon, and many other major spiritual & astrological events.
It is also the date, the President of France gave (in his 500 days to get ready for global change ) speech
* If you are a connect the dots type *
Or you believe everything on YouTube
Or you believe what NASA or Obama tells you

Other dates are more of a vague approximate , saying September 16-28th *

So... Jade Helm, FEMA & DHS camps & domes, Hilter Clinton's 'fun camp' references, Walmart
Post away people... don't forget pics & links



http://www.quora.com/Asteroid-Scares/What-is-the-chance-of-Asteroid-2012-TT5-hitting-earth-this-September-24-2015-Are-we-in-danger/

Asteroid Scares: What is the chance of Asteroid 2012 TT5 hitting earth this September 24, 2015? Are we in danger?
they predict its going to kill millions?
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Robert Walker
Robert Walker
Approaching this as a mathematician, interested in the planets
Upvote • 59 upvotes by Anonymous, Christian Tracey, Russell White, (more)
Originally Answered: Will an asteroid hit Earth on 25 September 2015?
Now that we have an actual named asteroid for 24th September it is easy to look up its Closest approach table. Notice that it misses by 0.0625 AU. If you aren't used to astronomical units, that may seem a close miss. But that's a distance of 9.35 million kilometers. The Moon is only 0.3844 million kilometers away. So that's a big miss there. And the minimum distance is 8.33 million kilometers. So no need to be concerned about that one!

You can keep up to date with potential impact hazards here:

Current Impact Risks

It's easy to check. Just look and see what colour they are.


To find out more see The Torino Impact Hazard Scale

If there is one that is a significant risk it will be coloured orange or red in the Current Impact Risks table.

If they are all white, blue or green, no need to be worried about it at all.

So far none of them have ever gone orange or red. If that does happen - we will get lots of media frenzy for sure, but be aware, that the chances are very high that it gets gets reclassified to white as more measurements are made.

The way it works is that when you first detect an asteroid, you don't know much about its trajectory, and then as you find out more you refine the orbit. As that happens, then sometimes an object may for a while seem to have a trajectory that has a chance of hitting Earth at a particular date, usually at low probability - and then later on as you constrain the orbit with more observations you find out that it is less likely and finally no chance at all.

One of the objects (29075) 1950 DA , large enough to do serious damage possibly even global in its effects (1.1 to 1.4 kms in diameter) had a 1 in 300 chance of impacting earth in 2880, but that risk has now been reduced to 1 in 20,000. Another object (89959) 2002 NT7 a little smaller but large enough to have potentially global effects, had a risk of 1 in a million of hitting Earth in February 2019, for a while, but it is now known it will miss.

Another object 2013 TV135 when first discovered, with only one week of observations, had a 1 in 63,000 chance of hitting Earth in 2032, leading to scary headlines. It's now known it will miss us on that date by over three quarters of the distance to the sun.

Details: Near-Earth object

To put it in perspective, if you had an image of the Earth with 1600 pixels resolution for its diameter, like a high resolution computer screen, then these asteroids would be a little over 1 pixel in diameter.

The dramatic images you see of huge impactors almost moon sized hitting the Earth are artist drawings of the impacts that happened in the early solar system. Chances of one of those is too tiny to consider and we'd know about it long in advance if there was anything. For instance Mercury being deflected from its orbit by the perturbations of Jupiter - may happen about half a billion years from now and if it did head for Earth it would be devastating - but not something we need to worry about. Long enough for humans to evolve a second time from primitive microbes.

There is a risk, but the chance of a major "dinosaur killer" type impact before the end of this century is around 0.0001%.

Since there are far more of the smaller impacts, I expect the first successful prediction of an impact on the Earth would be something like the Russian meteorite - an impactor maybe of the order of up to 100 meters diameter or so, and you tell people to stay indoors and avoid windows in the target region or at worst might have to evacuate some place.

So far we haven't yet had a successful prediction of an impact. Since we've had several impact craters, really tiny ones, then there are impactors there that we could predict as the program gets more refined.

Impact craters as large as this are likely to be created every 10 to 100 years


Diameter about 45 meters and created by an incoming rock only 1.3 meters in diameter. Pristine Impact Crater Discovered in Egypt Desert (first discovered on google maps :) ).

It's a challenge to track things as small as that. But as we get to smaller and smaller impactors, then eventually we are bound to predict a small impact like this. But most of the Earth's surface is uninhabited.

So just by probability, the most likely first confirmed predicted impact would be a small crater like this in an uninhabited region of the Earth. Just because they are so common.

And as it happens we have managed to predict a small impact. This is 2008 TC3

80 tonnes 4.1 meters in diameter, hit in the Sudan desert and about 600 meteorite fragments were recovered. It was detected only 19 hours before impact, but is first successful prediction of an impact before it happened.

It was used as a way to test the process of tracking NEOs on impact trajectory to Earth and many observations were made. Wikipedia (which is good on this topic area) summarizes it like this:

t was notable as the first such body to be observed and tracked prior to reaching Earth.[6] The process of detecting and tracking a near-Earth object, an effort sometimes referred to as Spaceguard, was put to the test. In total, 586 astrometric and almost as many photometric observations were performed by 27 amateur and professional observers in less than 19 hours and reported to the Minor Planet Center, which issued 25 Minor Planet Electronic Circulars with new orbit solutions in eleven hours as observations poured in. On October 7, 01:49 UTC,[9] the asteroid entered the shadow of the Earth, which made further observations impossible.

It would be a similar process if we found a big asteroid headed our way.

Amateurs and professionals would collaborate to make as many observations as possible to refine the orbit until we know exactly where it is headed and all we can find out about it. Astronomy is interesting as an area of science where amateurs are of great importance Modern telescopes owned by amateurs are very capable.

And while they don't have giant telescopes of tens of meters in diameter, they do have them up to a meter or so in diameter, and some a bit larger. And have the advantage that there are many amateurs to take observations when the pros are few in number by comparison.

BTW here is a telescope built by an amateur astronomer (truck driver) using a mirror from an old spy satellite he got hold of, that was nearly 2 meters in diameter (70 inches). He had to silver it himself. It is basically a giant "dobsonian" steered by hand I think.

At the time anyway, says he was the largest amateur built telescope in he world.


see: Utah truckdriver builds worlds largest amateur telescope

Here is a list of some other large amateur telescopes larger than 1 meter in diameter: Largest Amateur Telescopes

Astronomy is one of the few areas of science where amateurs continue to make significant on going contributions through their own observations.

There are so many events and objects to observe that the very few big telescopes can't possibly handle all the observations. It would be absurd to track a newly discovered asteroid with say the Hubble space telescope and such like.

They would be sure to rely on the amateur community as well as pro astronomers world wide. And indeed they do. For more about this see my comment on this answer.

This one broke up in the atmosphere as a dramatic "fireball" type meteor.

Photos were taken of the fireball from space

and 600 fragments recovered

I expect many more events like this before we get any predictions of a major impact. And when eventually we do, which we are bound to, at least Tungaski sized, it will probably be for many centuries or a thousand years into the future. Just by probabilities. Though it might be for nearer future.

As I said before chance of a really large kilometer scale one hitting Earth before 2100 is about 0.0001%. Still it could happen so is well worth putting a lot of effort into making sure we can predict anything like that.

There are ways we can deflect a meteorite, especially given lots of time we could deflect even a kilometer scale one. Even by a measure as simple as painting one of its hemispheres white.

See Asteroid impact avoidance

As for NASA somehow being able to predict a major impact that nobody else knows about, forget about it, it's an absurd idea :).

SUMMARY CONCLUSION

There is nothing in the list that has any probability at all of hitting Earth in the next year.

None at all. Nothing even big enough to be hazardous to a city or cause a tsunami.

We will get many smaller impacts up to say ten meters or so - we get those all the time. They usually burn up in the atmosphere causing a spectacular but harmless fireball, occasionally some remnant makes it to the ground.

There is a chance of larger impacts up to hundreds of meters, and a tiny chance of larger impacts than that because its work in progress, and it will take a while before they have them all mapped out. Hope to have nearly all mapped out by the 2020s down to a few hundred meters.

World ending not going to happen anyway, nothing that big for billions of years, probability about zero.

Dinosaur extinction scale - i.e. that many humans could survive because of our technology but dinosaurs couldn't - chances are minute of that happening in the near future, say before 2200.

Impacts as big as that happen every few million years. So, the best guess, at this stage before they complete the survey is that we probably have to wait at least a few million years before we have an impact as big as that.

With thousands, or millions of years to prepare for the impact, we may be able to divert it quite easily. Even with a century or two we may find a way to divert it, or if worst comes to the worst, have many decades to prepare e.g. building shelters etc to protect us, or identifying areas of the world that are safe to migrate to until the impact is over.

See also

Sizing Up the Threat from Near-Earth Objects (NEOs)

Entertaining TED talk about asteroid impacts and what we can do

How to defend Earth from asteroids
by Phil Platt (of Bad Astronomy blog fame)

One of several blog posts about one of the many meteorite scare stories (we get them every year or so, and sometimes they are published by large distribution newspapers that should know better) by Phil Platts - there's a nice video debate with experts about asteroid impacts at the end

Reports of an Asteroid Impact in 2106 Are Greatly Exaggerated

Also please see the Asteroid Scares topic.

I've just written this up as an article for my Science20 blog here:
Is It True That An Asteroid Will Strike Earth On [Insert Date Here]? - Truth Behind Asteroid Scare Stories

DEFLECTING ASTEROIDS

If you are curious about how painting an asteroid white can deflect it, here is a short video of professor Dave Hyland talking about the idea:

And article
Asteroids No Match For Paint Gun, Says Prof | Texas A&M Today
(or How to Deflect Killer Asteroids With Spray Paint | WIRED)

Amongst the most favoured approaches are, direct kinetic (non nuclear) impact (obvious thing to do really) - and the gravity tractor


But a huge number of other ideas have been explored, some in a great deal of detail. For some of them see the wikipedia article: Asteroid impact avoidance

ASTEROID DETECTION

So far our asteroid detection is done from Earth. But if we can send space telescopes into independent orbit around the sun, especially if they are closer to the sun, then they will be able to spot faint close NEOs much more quickly, so that we can complete the search for them sooner.

This is the idea of the B612 foundation (named after the "Little Prince"'s planet) which has been working for some time on its Sentinel telescope idea



It would sit inside of Earth close to Venus's orbit giving it a good field of view of NEOs close to the sun. It looks away from the sun to avoid being blinded by it - and it can then see faint NEOs that are in between the Earth and the Sun which is the hardest place to spot them from our current Earth based surveys. Eventually it would spot just about everything out there that's in the vicinity of the Earth orbit.

Idea is that it would find nearly all potential impactors down to 40 meters diameter. And recently announced, that it should be able to spot them down to 20 meters diameter.

They hope to launch it in 2017 to 2018 on a Falcon 9. And to find 90% of NEOs down to 140 meters within ten years and a significant proportion of all NEOs down to 30 meters.

Anyone who is really keen to support them with their work can help them out with a donation on their website.

You can also sign this petition to increase funding of asteroid detection by 100 times
100x Declaration
Updated 1 May • 214,768 views • Asked to answer by Anonymous
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OTHER ANSWERS
Tim Cole
Tim Cole
Astronomy educator and sky enthusiast
Upvote • 11 upvotes by Jeremy Lowe, Russell White, Shashank Sharma, (more)
Originally Answered: Will an asteroid hit Earth on 25 September 2015?
Ah, the fearmongers are at it again. This sort of nonsense crops up with dreary regularity. Jeremy Lowe explains the process of discovering and tracking things like asteroids and comets, so I won't repeat any of it.

Notice with these breathless "announcements" that nobody has provided a name or a provisional designation for the object. This means that there's no way for anyone to check on their statements.

Let's look at the inevitable argument that the news of this object has been suppressed by governments. That doesn't make any sense at all. Governments could not do this. Let's see why not.

If anyone can determine, this far in advance, that something would come near the Earth, that object would have to be big and bright. Automated sky survey telescopes would have seen it. Amateur astronomers would have already seen it.

Even if you assume that all the professional astronomers in the world could be silenced (and they can't be), it's clearly impossible to silence the community of amateur astronomers: millions of people all over the planet, all with their own equipment. News would rippling through every astronomy club on the planet. It isn't.

The only way to know if something will come near Earth at a particular date is to have computed its orbit. This means we would know its position in the sky right now. I should be able to aim my telescope to the coordinates and see it for myself. Even if it's too faint for my relatively small telescopes, I can easily find someone with a telescope big enough to see it.

Notice the fearmongers don't tell you where to look.

Now, could something we can't see be a threat to us? Yes, indeed. But if we can't see it, how do the fearmongers know about it?

This has been a long answer. Here's the TL;DR verision: it's utter nonsense.
Written 1 May • 15,319 views • Asked to answer by Anonymous
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David Caune
David Caune
observing,
Upvote • 11 upvotes by Quora User, Robert Walker, Malcolm Sargeant, (more)
Originally Answered: Will an asteroid hit Earth on 25 September 2015?
Hang on to your hat! Kinda one hundred per cent definitely, "Yes!" [1]



Each year there are 500 or more impacts on the Earth by meteors of less than 5 metres (16 feet) in diameter, often originating from the asteroid belt.

By comparison, there is a 1 in 10,000 chance that Earth will be hit by a 2 kilometre (1.2 mile) wide asteroid or comet in the next century. [2]

Bookmakers are willing to insure you at bigger-than-telephone-number odds against a direct hit by an asteroid or any damage from such an event, be it September 24, 2015 or over a long period of time.

Halfway though writing this answer, I noticed Thomas Dalton's answer with the JPL Sentry Risk Tables.

Look up!

[1] Impact winter
[2] What's Hitting Earth?
Updated 1 May • 15,575 views
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Jeremy Lowe
Jeremy Lowe
I'm fed up being a wannabe astronomer! I wanna be an astronomer!
Upvote • 105 upvotes by Tim Cole, Anonymous, Malcolm Sargeant, (more)
Originally Answered: Will an asteroid hit Earth on 25 September 2015?
Thanks for the A2A.

Panics over asteroids hitting us happen every so often. I'm not even a little bit worried.

It might make you feel better if I can talk you through how these things work.

Discovery of the asteroid
Someone makes an observation and finds a previously unknown asteroid.

(In the very old days this would be someone looking though a telescope. Until a few years ago it would be someone taking photographs on film through a telescope. These days it's a telescope taking digital photos that go straight into a computer.)

So, there's an asteroid, and where it appears on the sky doesn't match the expected positons for any known one. So, it's new, and someone needs to work out its orbit.

So, there are guys who do this sort of thing. Nerds in offices with big computers. Someone gives them the observations, and they work away at it...

But they can't come up with just one exact orbit for it, because it's maybe only been observed three times, and there's a margin of error around where it was seen. So what these guys have to do is come up with a lot of closely-related orbits that it could be in. That's a load of curves that all go though the places where it was seen.

So, all that can be done at first is to come up witha a load of orbits for it... some of which may hit the Earth. And so something is announced like "there's a 1 in 750 chance that it will hit the Earth on (date)".

This is what journalists call news, but it's not quite news-y enough. So it gets reported with a subtext of OH MY GOD WE'RE ALL GOING TO DIE!

Refining the orbit
OK... so let's say our nerdy hero has three observations of the asteroid, on 21st, 22nd and 23rd of February. Bearing in mind there are error margins, these are rough locations, not points, where it was. So there are lots of orbits that could go though those three rough locations.

Next step is to work out the orbit backwards. Backwards? yes, because he wants to go back in time, by looking at old pictures.

If he can work out roughly where it was on 1st January, he can look up pictures taken on that date, and use those to fnd out more exactly where it was on 1st January.

Then he can do more orbital calculations, and he'll find most of the orbits he came up with don't go though that spot on 1st January. So those orbits are not correct, and he can rule them out.

Meanwhile, he gets the guys with the telescopes to do more observations. So let's say they observe it again on 28th Feb. Now he's got it in known positions on 1st Jan, 21st, 22nd, 23rd and 28th Feb. So any orbits that don't go though the place it was at on 28th Feb can be ruled out.

So a couple of weeks, or a month, go by, during which our nerdy hero is getting more information about this thing, and ruling out a lot of possible orbits.

And what usually happens at the end of that is one of two things.

He publishes along the lines of "the probability of impact is 1 in 300,000".
or
He publishes along the lines of "it won't hit us".


Reporting the threat
Now... remember how the newspapers and TV stations and websites had reported it as "an asteroid might hit us and kill us all"?

Do they now report, with equal prominence, "Actually, that asteroid isn't going to hit us after all?"

Reader, they do not.

"Something is going to happen" is NEWS.

"Something might happen" is News.

"Something is not going to happen" is Not News.

Note how we're all still here, despite these stories having appeared two or three times a year in the papers for as long as I can remember.

The story always goes the same way. "There's an outside chance it could hit us..." is reported, but "...no it won't" isn't reported.


The worst has passed
"But what if this one is really going to hit us?" I hear you ask.

One reason it's so unlikely is: if it was going to hit us, it would probably have hit us already.

The Earth is about 4.6 billion years old. Asteroids are as old as that, or a bit more.

We whirl round the Sun once a year. Asteroids that come close to us go round in anything from about 1 to about 5 years. Over 4.6 billion years, they have had lots of chances to hit us.

Do these collisions happen? Yes. Take a look at the Moon- well smashed up from this sort of thing. Earth has had similar, but wind and rain and geology have worn them away over millions of years.

And every time one of those hit, that's one less left out there for us to worry about. All the most dangerous ones that were there at the begining are no longer a problem, because they've already hit us.

(This actually reminds me of a story I heard on the TV news this evening.

There's a town near me where the police have spent the last week arresting 46 drug dealers.

One way to look at it: "This town is terrible! There are 46 drug dealers!"

Better way to look at it: "46 drug dealers are in jail! This town is safe!" )


Not an easy target
Here's another reason not to worry: SPACE IS BIG.

Take a look at this picture:

It's called Pale Blue Dot, and it was taken from the Voyager 1 space probe in 1990. The coloured bands are sunlight reflecting in the camera lenses.

Can you see the Earth?

It's in the rightmost coloured band, a little less than half-way up.

That picture, as taken originally, had 640,000 pixels- and the Earth is less than one pixel.

To put it another way: there's 1 pixel's worth of Earth in there, and 639,999 pixels that are not Earth.

Bear in mind that asteroids are not guided missiles trying to get us. They're just dumb rocks floating about.

The odds of them missing us are MUCH more than the slight possiblity that they might hit us.


So, to sum up...
When a new asteroid is found, there is a margin of error in estimating how close it might approach.
It can take a month or so to work out what the true closest approach is.
PANIC! is News. DON'T PANIC! is Not News.
Most of the ones that could hit us, have already hit us.
We are a pretty small target..

If you want to keep track of potentially hazardous asteroids, a good site to check is

http://neo.jpl.nasa.gov/risk/

http://beforeitsnews.com/paranormal/2015/06/confirmed-2-5-mile-wide-comet-expected-september-15-28-2015-2491612.html/

http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/07/150714093814.htm/

Cliffs notes please.

Omg we all gonna die

Hhhaaaa.. I wish I could of just said "So... what do you think about the Asteroid?"
But what would happen Tulip?
People would say ...
" What asteroid!? "
" Give me a link?"

But, this asteroid talk has been going on for months. Some don't believe there is one. Some think the planet is doomed. Other's think in a variety of conspiracies.

So, I'm just making light of it & wondering what people think ,& what they have heard.

I actually look at it as..Oh well, if we die , we die.

When people start talking about 'The End of The World'... especially predicting it, the thing I like to keep in mind is that you could be hit by a bus, or die of an orgasm induced coronary.(or get sucked up in the Bozo Mushroom Cloud of Doom )

Either way, that's the end of YOUR world. You should always be ready.

Very true sassy about posting more than less. Most times it seems like one conspiracy after another. I'd be greatly surprised if we were to be hit by anything soon.

Maybe they are just trying to get us to make purchases in so called preparation.

An economy booster for sure.

Exactly, if we go we go. I'm not about to dig a tunnel & stockpile. Geez, I could mess up my french manicure

Seriously, I agree with you, people should always be ready. They should be alright with themselves & their God.

Or... start digging

I don't think THEY want us to shop or stockpile..... woops another conspiracy theory.

I banned myself from YouTube... some of those people should be put down by a vet. Crazy a@@ nut jobs!

For those of you who think we're all gonna die...

Please send your cash, precious metals, and valuable gemstones to me.