How worried should President Obama be about winning a second term?

by Jack Cafferty

As the Republican candidates keep tearing each other apart, President Obama may want to start worrying about November - if he hasn't already.

New Gallup state-by-state polling on the president's approval rating suggests he might be in trouble.

Overall, President Obama averaged a 44% job approval in his third year in office - down from 47% in his second year.

According to gallup, his approval rating declined from 2010 to 2011 in 47 of the 50 states. Not good.

The president's approval rating was above 50% last year in only 10 states plus the District of Columbia.

Gallup suggests that the state approval rating could provide some clues into how President Obama will fare in the electoral college.

If the president were to carry only the states where more people approved than disapproved of him last year, he would lose to the Republican nominee 323 to 215. That's landslide territory

And Politico reports on several additional factors working against the president.

The congressional budget office says unemployment is likely to climb to 9% by the election.

There's polling that shows President Obama tied or trailing Mitt Romney in key swing states.

And there's growing evidence that the idea that the president will raise a lot more money than the Republicans just isn't true.

Of course there are still nine months to go before the election; and we don't know yet who the Republican nominee will be, or if there will be a third party candidate - which could work to Mr. Obama's advantage.

http://caffertyfile.blogs.cnn.com/2012/02/02/how-worried-should-president-obama-be-about-winning-in-2012/?hpt=hp_t2/

Obama has my vote.

This is so, so speculative. A lot can change from now to November. Quoting polls from 2011 isn't very relevant in 2012. The very nature of polls is transitory. I only pay attention to them starting in the late summer before the election, and even then I realize I'm just driving myself crazy for no reason.

Polls can show what ever you want them to.

Obama will be a one-term president...

While 46 percent of likely voters predicted Obama will lose next year, 41 percent said he will win, a narrow margin just outside the poll’s margin of error that reflects the public’s split opinion about the president. The remaining 13 percent were unsure.

First term, 51 percent of polled voters said Obama was either a failure or not very successful, while 48 percent said he was either very successful or somewhat successful.

77 percent of Republicans said there will be no second term for Obama while 70 percent of Democrats said there will be. Independents predicted 43 percent to 40 percent that Obama will be reelected, but that 3-point difference was within the poll’s margin of error. If the 17 percent of independents who are unsure could be persuaded to break Obama’s way, they could be the key to his victory.
But that scenario looks unlikely, as 54 percent of independents think his first-term performance has been unsuccessful.....

The president still has strong support from black voters and women: Seventy-nine percent of blacks said he’ll be reelected and 94 percent said he’s been successful during his first term. While 55 percent of men said Obama’s first term wasn’t successful, 52 percent of women said it had been a success.

Obama’s low approval numbers in polls have often been attributed to the terrible economy and lack of promised growth, and voters in the poll confirmed that they look to the president for leadership on that score.

An overwhelming 92 percent of likely voters said the choice of president is important in determining the country’s economic strength, yet the middle class isn’t as concerned as are the poor and wealthy.

Three-fourths of those earning less than $20,000 per year said the choice of president is “very important” to economic strength and 67 percent of those earning more than $100,000 agreed. But only 55 percent of those earning between $75,000 and $100,000 said the same.

That probably won’t help Obama, whose campaign has been going after middle-class voters by painting Republicans as a party out to destroy the middle class.

Eighty-nine percent of likely voters are paying attention to the 2012 presidential race, with 58 percent giving it “a lot” of attention.

Older voters are slightly more inclined to be paying more attention than younger voters. Eighty-five percent of those between the ages of 18 and 39 said they are paying attention, compared to 92 percent of those between 40 and 64, and 93 percent of those aged 65 and older.

The youngest demographic was split on whether Obama will get a second term, with 45 percent saying he will not and 45 percent saying he will. In 2008, Obama greatly relied on the support of young people — a group whose voting turnout had been inconsistent in the past.

Another age divide was seen when likely voters were asked if America’s best days are ahead or behind it. Overall, it was a dead heat, with 40 percent saying the nation’s best days are in the future, 41 percent saying they’re in the past and 19 percent unsure, but older people were less optimistic. Forty-five percent of 40-to-64-year-olds said America’s best days are in the past. Conversely, 42 percent of those between 18 and 39 said the best days are still ahead.

Too funny anyone seriously think in this age of class agitation the crooked dirty money romeny will win? Its going to be an Obama landslide, unfortunatly we do not have a real liberal or progesive on the t icket too choose from. Two wings of the capitlaistic party or 1% if you choose.

I'd love to have Obama replaced, but the way the republicans are handling the primaries I don't think he has much to worry about.

Face it, Obama's term so far has been only moderately successful, if that, he just does not have the political clout to get his programs passed through an overwhelmingly unsupportive congress.

That said however, with the other choices being the newt or the mitt,
I think ole Barack has a very good chance of gaining a second term.

theres no clear indicator, in my opinion, of what will happen in the next nine months,,,,

Obama is running scared!

Obama will win this November. I think the republicans will vote republican, the democrats will vote democrat and the independents will be so tired of hearing that the entire republican platform is to make Obama a one term president they will give him a REAL opportunity to govern.

I really think that most people like balance mixed with compromise, for the good of the ENTIRE nation, not just half.

No offense sir but with republicans only the 1% are represented in any way that is meaningfull. I allways thought that swinging from dem to repub was allways good to keep things in ballance but wiith the dems we have a liberal republican and with repugs we get slightly left of fascist.

Obama, Romney, Obamney, Robamney, Barry, Romoney its all the same really. Ron Paul FTW 2012 PAULTARDS UNITE

I get all the polls this.. 9 months that, but if unemployment is back to 9% and gas is over $4 per gallon you can kiss him goodbye regardless of who the republican is...

The beauty of mingle is that come November we can go back to this thread and see who was right and who wasn't..

The scariest part of the overall picture re polls...

The United States of America is at 'simple majority'.

Half want this and half want that.

Not only at 'simple majority' but scattered at simple majority in as small an increment as a single county...

It may come down to a few single votes.

(in a way that will screw even the control of the Electoral College)

Simple Majority state by state.

If there is a 'landslide' victory it will be triggered in the last few days before the vote.

The thing is that our founding fathers new this would one day happen.

It brings the ringing of the Liberty Bell.

One of them suggested we have a revolution every 200 years or so... Just to keep government honest.

Simple Majority can trigger such an event.

What do I mean...

The overall polls hover between 45 and 60 percent.

When you match all the Canditates for President with each other you get...

49% for 49% against (within a margin of error of +3-3Percent).

Shear point

Oh yes, please can we go back to this some day? Soon? I remember when Republicans and Democrats actually shared some beliefs, respected each other, and worked together as a matter of course. FOR THE GOOD OF THE ENTIRE NATION, not just their tiny most extreme fringe.

It's true. I'm old, I actually remember this. It used to happen.

judging by donations, I still think the majority of obamas base are the small, unwealthy folks, donating less than two hundred a pop

if they outnumber the rich, entitled ones, his chances are as good as the first time around,,,

Well, of course we small people outnumber the rich. Unfortunately, our dollars don't.